COVID19 IN CHINA


The new infections and the relative forecast of the COVID19 in China are examined  presenting the new ones and the total ones in the following figure, in linear scale. The asymptotic value is around 80,000 cases.

The forecast of the new infections is done by using the Malthus exponential curve and the Verhulst curve (also called S-shaped or logistic curve).

The forecast are made beginning from certain days that appeared as important or crucial, as, February 1st, 6th, 11th and 15th, as shown from the figure in logarithmic scale, which evidences the smaller values.

The Malthus exponential curve requires the definition of the rate of increase, named r in certain equations, while the Verhulst curve requires, besides the constant r, also the constant K, as is named in certain equations.

The exam of the figure, in linear scale, indicates that a correct forecast up to the total number of 81,400 infections is possible and almost feasible when the collected data are significant and enough large.

During the next days I will examine the forecast of the new cases in the other countries involved in the COVID19 pandemia.

Fabio Gori

 gori@uniroma2.it









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