Welcome letter

Welcome letter of March 21st, 2020, first day of the Spring 2020.

Dear Friend,

today is the first day of the Spring 2020.

In this dramatic period I have decided to spend some of my time, as a researcher, to share results of some scientific researches, devoted to forecast (or to try to forecast) what is going to happen in the near future.

My thoughts are going to the people who work in these days to help the other human beings in great difficulty because of the COVID19 pandemia.

I hope to have your attention and interest

Forbigaio




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SPAIN COVID19 FORECAST MARCH 24TH 2020

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March 24th, 2020. I have examined the situation of the infections in Spain, as it appears from the data up to March 23rd. The first two figures show the new and total cases of COVID19 in linear and logaritmic scales. The linear figure shows a trend which appears to be exponential. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.   https://didattica.uniroma2.it/docenti/curriculum/4295-Fabio-Gori www.termofluidodinamica.it   https://covid19forecast.blogspot.com/ https://eucovid19.blogspot.com/ https://usacovid19.blogspot.com/  https://forbigaio.blogspot.com/   The logaritmic curve shows a slight deviation from the linear trend.   The forecast of the new infection, starting from the 22nd, shows that an asymptotic value of around 42,000 is going to be reached by the end of this month.  The following figure presents the same data in logaritmic scale.
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COVID19 IN SOUTH KOREA

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Today I have investigated the forecast of the COVID19 in South Korea. I have used the same procedure followed with the COVID19 in China posted yesterday.  First of all let's have a look to the new and total cases happened in South Korea until March 20th, presented in the following figure, in logaritmic scale, where the total cases until March 20th is around 860. Then let see the forecast obtained with the Malthus and Verhulst approach applied from the day reported in each of the following figures, in logaritmic and linear scale. The conclusions are similar to the China forecast. A sufficient number of data is necessary before to be able to forecast the total number of cases. Forbigaio
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ITALY COVID19 OF MARCH 24TH

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March 24th, 2020. I have examined the situation of the infections in Italy, as it appears from the data up to March 23rd. The first two figures show the new and total cases of COVID19 in linear and logaritmic scales. The linear figure shows a trend which appears close to exponential, while the logartmic one allows the hope to a slight inflection of the logartmic linear trend. The next two figures present, besides the new cases, the total ones, the deaths and the dimissions, the forecast made with the Malthus and Verhulst equations, in linear and logaritmic scales. According to the Verhults equation the forecast is to reach a number of  around 62,000 infections by the end of March, in substantial agreement to the forecast of two days ago. Forbigaio
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